According to data from Variflight analyzed by Nomura, flights between the United States and mainland China have only recovered to less than 6% compared to pre-pandemic levels in 2019. While flights between mainland China and Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Italy have returned to near or even surpass pre-COVID-19 levels.
The recovery of flight operations between the US and China remains sluggish, even as COVID-19 control measures are being lifted. In March, China played a mediating role in facilitating the restoration of diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Additionally, China has refrained from condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, instead calling for peace talks.
Tensions between the US and China continue to simmer, with the Chinese ambassador to the United States assuming office last week after a six-month vacancy in the position.
Over the past weekend, Air China became the first Chinese airline to resume non-stop flights between Beijing and New York State after several months. This flight is part of the four weekly flights approved by the US Department of Transportation in May, connecting the two countries.
Previously, China Airlines operated direct flights from Shanghai and Guangzhou to New York State and Los Angeles.
US airlines have been more cautious in resuming flights between the US and China, largely due to restrictions on flying over Russian airspace, which give Chinese airlines a competitive advantage. The three major US airlines, Delta Airlines, United Airlines, and American Airlines, are estimated to face additional costs of $2 billion per year due to these restrictions. However, the mentioned airlines have not yet commented on this matter.
Furthermore, Nomura’s report indicates that overall international flights from mainland China still remain 40% below the average of 2019. Analysts expect mainland China’s international flight operations to reach 70% of pre-pandemic levels by the end of this year, as travel recovers during the summer holiday season.