The Minister of Agriculture and Food Policy in Ukraine has projected a significant decrease of around 40% in the country’s grain and oilseed exports for the current year.
According to the predictions, Ukraine will only be able to export approximately 46 million tonnes of grain and oilseed in 2023, marking a substantial decline from the levels recorded in 2022. The primary cause for this decline is attributed to shipping difficulties encountered via the Black Sea.
A report highlights that Russia has issued a threat to not renew the existing agreement that facilitates a secure export route from Ukrainian Black Sea ports. Unless Ukraine meets the demands put forth by Russia to enhance its grain and fertilizer exports, the agreement is set to expire on July 17.
Starting from March, Russia has outlined two primary requirements. The first demand is the resumption of ammonia shipments from the pipeline to the Ukrainian Black Sea port of Pivdennyi for global market exports. The second requirement is to establish a connection between the Russian Agricultural Bank, Rosselkhozbank, and the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) banking system.
It’s worth noting that the Russian Agricultural Bank was disconnected from the SWIFT network of the European Union (EU) in June 2022. Currently, the EU has indicated that it is not considering reinstating the SWIFT connection for Russian banks.