Chinese measures to open up the country support Thai exports in 2023, but growth may be slower than expected

According to Krungthai COMPASS, the value of Thai exports in 2023 is likely to grow by 0.7%, supported by the relaxation of China’s disease control measures in January. The return of China’s manufacturing sector to normal is expected to help ease the trend of supply chain disruption, which will have a positive effect on Thai exports to China.

However, exports contracted in December, with a value of $21,719 million, contracting 14.6% from the previous month, which contracted 6.0%. Exports of all categories, including agricultural products, agro-industrial products, and industrial products, have been impacted by the global economic slowdown and weak consumer purchasing power. As a result, overall exports in 2022 expanded at 5.5%.

Krungthai COMPASS points out that the export volume is likely to decelerate in the future due to the global economic slowdown, but export prices are still expanding due to the impact of the prolonged Russo-Ukrainian war. However, the growth rate is expected to have passed its peak and is likely to slow down.

The Siam Commercial Bank (SCB) expects Thai exports in 2023 to expand by 1.2%, down from its previous estimate. This is due to the pressure from the global economy slowing down and the new import taxation of important trading partners. Thai exports will benefit from the lifting of ZERO-COVID measures in China to some extent.

The Kasikorn Research Center views that the overall picture of Thai exports in 2023 still faces pressure from a variety of negative factors, especially the global economic slowdown that will reduce the purchasing power of Thailand’s important trading partners.

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