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Impact of Russia Sanctions Lower Than Expected According to IEA

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has stated that lower oil exports from Russia due to sanctions against Ukraine will not lead to a global oil shortage. This is because the supply of oil from other countries is increasing and the closure of Chinese cities has reduced the demand for oil.

„Lower demand expectations and steady output increases from Middle East OPEC+ members along with the US and other countries outside the OPEC+ alliance should bring the market back to balance,“

writes the IEA in its monthly report.

A slowdown in goods exports and a slump in domestic demand following the sanctions means that about 1 million barrels per day of oil did not come out of Russia last month. That’s about 500,000 barrels per day less than the IEA had forecast last month.

However, according to the IEA, Russian oil exports increased by 620,000 barrels per day in April compared to March, returning to the average January-February level of 8.1 million barrels per day. Russia has shifted its oil export routes from the U.S. and Europe primarily to India.

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