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Russia’s Gas Sales Not Expected to Have Negative Long-Term Consequences

With the current invasion of Russia in Ukraine, the topic of energy security in highly dependent Europe is a major issue. Russia has already announced that it will not stop gas supplies, but the question remains whether European politicians can afford to buy Russian gas, also because of concerns about their popularity among the population. What is certain is that Western countries now want to exclude some Russian banks from the SWIFT system in response to the Russian invasion.

According to voices, Germany, in particular, is not really happy with the sanctions, because Germany buys almost 55% of its gas from Russia. A cut here will have serious consequences for the population.

On the Russian side, despite the sanctions, there will probably be no need to worry about the sale of natural gas in the long term. In many parts of the world, there is still a shortage of gas and with the pressure for decarbonization, many countries are looking to natural gas to replace coal. Russia’s largest gas company Gazprom has been targeting the Asian market for many years, especially China, which needs energy products to keep the lights on if it is to continue to grow.

This was also shown by the recently concluded gas deal, which will bring gas from Russia to China through a new gas pipeline for the next 30 years.

Therefore, even if Europe were to buy less, the Russian sales would probably come from other regions.

Gazprom shares crashed following the invasion of Russian troops into Ukraine. Last week, the share fell by more than 30% on the Moscow stock exchange. In the long term, it remains to be seen how the share will develop, which probably also depends on the sales and the sanctions.

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