The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its short-term outlook yesterday. The EIA sees further growth in crude oil and liquid fuels for 2022 and 2023, but the COVID pandemic continues to be an uncertain factor in terms of demand. In the next few years, GDP growth is expected to slow, the EIA predicts that GDP will increase by 4.3% in 2022 and 2.8% in 2023. In 2021, GDP is expected to increase by 5.7%, which shows that they expect a slowdown in the increase.
For the spot price of Brent, the EIA predicts an average price of $75 per barrel in 2022 and $68 per barrel in 2023. In 2021, the average price was still $71 per barrel.
U.S. crude oil production is expected to continue to rise over the next few years. By 2022, average production is expected to be 11.8 million barrels per day, rising to 12.4 million barrels per day in 2023. This would be the highest average production per day ever in the U.S.
Coal production is expected to reach 619 million short tons in 2023, increasing by 6% in 2022 and by another 1% in 2023.
In the end, U.S. power generation in 2022 is expected to consist of 35% natural gas, 22% coal, and 20% nuclear. This will decrease power generation from natural gas by 2% and decrease coal power by 1%.